Existential Demographic Threat to India’s Secular Identity.
- Ram Kumar Ohri, IPS (Ret'd)
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During last several decades a lot of disinformation has been propagated across the world, especially in developing countries, that any increase in population per se is an impediment to economic development. Malthusian theory was used as the medium for spreading this disinformation. Truth, however, is altogether different. Manpower or human resource is a great asset for economic development. But there is an important caveat: the population must be educated and invested with professional skills. The real roadblocks to economic development are illiteracy and lack of skill. Youthful population, if it is educated and skilled, is the biggest harbinger of enhanced productivity and higher Gross Domestic Product.
will surprise the Indian middle class that the latest threat to the humankind
does not emanate from over population; it comes from too few new arrivals, a
phenomenon which will soon lead to depopulation of many countries. After
invention of contraceptives, all over world, except Muslim countries, fertility
levels have sharply declined by more than half since 1972 - from 6 children per
woman in 1972 to 2.9 in 1990s. According to the United Nations Population
a majority of middle class Hindu, Sikh and Christian elite and opinion-makers
do not understand the weird phenomenon of demographic decimation which
destroyed the secular and multicultural ethos of
monumental demographic changes in several States of India, the Hindu identity
the long term implications of fast-paced demographic changes for Indic
civilisation, it is necessary to consider the following facts gleaned from the
data of last six censuses held in
population of only one community, namely the Muslims, to the exclusion of every other religious group. The percentage growth of all other communities, e.g., Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and Christians has been in a declining mode. On top of it, since 1981 the Muslim population growth has gathered speed and is now in a massive fast forward mode. Even the Sachar Committee Report has admitted, perhaps by default, that by the year 2101, the Muslim population of India is likely to be between 32 to 34 crores Rupees.
poverty or illiteracy. Since 36 percent Muslims live in urban areas, as against
only 26 percent Hindus, and Muslims have a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus (by 1.2 years according to 2 NFHS Surveys as analysed by Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier),logically their fertility should have been lower than Hindus. But the fact remains that the fertility of Muslim continues to be higher despite their greater urbanization.
8. According to NFHS Survey-2 (National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998-99)
in Kerala where the literacy level of 2 communities is almost equal (and due to
large Gulf remittances economically Muslims are better off than the Hindus) the
growth rate of Muslims is much higher than Hindus by a whopping 45 percent.
in August 2006 Archbishop Verky of
fit to warn his co-religionists that in another 20 years Kerala was likely to become
an Islamic state. He exhorted the Christian couples to have more children.
9. The National Family Health Survey-2 (1998) had revealed that on an average every
Muslim woman was giving birth to 1.1 more children than her Hindu counterpart.
It may be clarified that late Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier are not, repeat not, the so-called 'right wing' Hindu fundamentalists, as is evident from their occasionally chiding the Hindu "right" at one or two places in their research study. At least one of them is a Christian - even both could be.
is time that Indians understood the mindboggling import of the highly revealing
Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page xlii) which gives the
religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 years of age group. It shows that
the percentage of Muslim cohorts (a term commonly used in demographic parlance)
is 21 percent higher than Hindu cohorts. Although according to census 2001 Muslims
constitute only 13.4 percent of India’s population, their population share in
the crucial 0-6 years age group was 21 percent higher than the Hindus, giving
Muslims a head start advantage of 7.6 percent over Hindus, when these cohorts
enter reproductive age, say roughly between 2011 and 2016. This
single page of Census 2001 Report gives a total clue to the demographic crisis
likely to engulf
the latest by 2021. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in 2001) will become reproductively active between 2011 and 2016 and then continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21 percent higher cohort population and at least 25-30 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim population during the next 4 decades is likely to become even faster paced. It is simple arithmetic; even a high school student can understand it and do it.
In percentage terms, the biggest quantum jump in Muslim population in the coming decades will take place in Haryana where the ratio of Muslim cohorts is almost
60 percent higher than the Hindu
cohorts! Next in descending order will
analysis of the 0-6 year old cohorts data reveals that out of 35 States and
Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim 0-6 year old
cohorts is higher than Hindus in as many as 31 States and Union Territories. The
percentage of 0-6 year old cohorts is marginally higher than Muslim cohorts
only in two States of Sikkim and Madhya Pradesh and two U.Ts of Daman & Diu
and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It means that in the coming decades the
Muslim population will grow at a rate higher than that of Hindus in 31 States
and Union Territories out of 35 States
and U.Ts. of
Statement 7 of
Census 2001 Religion Data Report is self explanatory and vividly depicts the
looming dark shadow of the future demographic changes which will impact the
geopolitical fabric of
is surprising why the Indian intelligentsia do not understand the reasons which
prompted the former Prime Minister of the U.K., Tony Blair, to discreetly advise
all British couples to opt for the 5 children norm, why in recent years most
European countries have announced liberal cash bonuses to couples opting to
have more children, why Peter Costello, Australia's Chancellor of the
Exchequer, gave a clarion call in 2004 to his countrymen that every couple must
have at least 3 children, preferably many more, stipulating "one child for
father, one for the mother and one for the country". Apprehensive of the
population growth of jihad-infested
more rational and sagacious than
us, the dumb Indians. No wonder,
doubting Thomases might ask why this global panic, what is the problem, where
is the problem? The answer is that in
the year 1900 the Muslims constituted only 12 percent of the world population;
they grew to 18 percent in 1992-93 (when
(a strategic analyst who teaches contemporary history at Harvard) wrote in The
1980 to 2003), rising from 1000 in 1980 to 75,000 plus in 2003! The plight of Christian
is time for the Indian middle class and opinion makers to wake up and
understand the long term climactic consequences of the existential demographic
crisis writ large across the Indian horizon. In a different context, while
analysing socio-economic aspects of the latest census, the well known
demographer, Prof. Ashish Bose, has estimated that presently in 49 districts
Muslims already constitute more than 30 percent of population. [Source:
Economic and Political Weekly, Mumbai,
Muslim growth rate of the last
two decades shows that Muslims will attain majority status in all these 49
districts, any time between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier. Just now
Muslims are in majority in 12 districts to which another 37 may be added by the
end of the century, may be even earlier. What might happen thereafter is
anybody's guess. In the light of Kashmir experience, the demographic change has
the potential to give a massive fillip to the jihadi fervor in the sub-continent.
According to the Centre for Policy Studies, any time around the year 2061 the
total Muslim population of the sub-continent (
Interestingly even The Sachar Committee has unwittingly admitted that by 2101 the Muslim population of India was likely to range between 32 to 34 crores Rupees. According to Census 2001 the population of Muslims was 13.4 crores Rupees in that year, while in 1951 it was only 3.77 crores Rupees.
cold facts should ring a loud alarm bell to wake up all those who want to
ensure long term survival of secularism in
The problem has global dimensions, too. It is unfortunate that while the world has woken up to the threat of high velocity demographic changes, we Indians, especially the Hindu leaders have remained comatose.
A detailed analysis of the percentage of 0-6 years old cohorts of Hindus and Muslims, along with explanatory comments, given below, highlights the long term dimensions of the fast approaching demographic crisis which could usher a post Hindu era in several parts of India.
PROPORTION OF 0-6 YEARS COHORTS
TO TOTAL POPULATION OF RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES, BASED ON STATEMENT 7
ON PAGE xlii OF CENSUS 2001 RELIGION DATA REPORT (
India/States All religious Hindus Muslims Christians Sikhs Buddhists Jains Others
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Jammu & Kashmir 14.6 13.3 15.4 11.6 10.6 11.7 10.9 15.5
Himachal Pradesh 13.0 13.3 16.2 12.8 12.1 10.6 10.5 13.2
Uttaranchal 16.0 15.4 21.2 11.7 14.8 9.1 9.8 14.7
Haryana 15.8 15.4 24.5 12.4 13.0 16.2 11.3 11.7
Rajasthan 18.8 18.8 21.0 14.6 15.1 18.2 10.7 15.9
Uttar Pradesh 19.0 18.6 20.9 14.6 14.1 19.9 11.9 17.0
Arunachal Pradesh 18.8 17.1 18.8 20.5 7.6 19.8 15.7 19.1
Nagaland 14.6 12.7 19.2 14.6 8.3 11.9 11.7 12.8
Manipur 14.2 13.2 19.8 14.0 8.5 18.4 10.1 14.8
Mizoram 16.2 9.2 10.1 16.1 9.8 20.5 16.8 15.8
Tripura 13.6 13.0 18.6 15.7 4.5 17.9 11.9 12.1
Meghalaya 20.2 14.2 21.2 21.1 12.3 14.4 13.5 21.5
Jharkhand 18.4 17.9 21.2 16.2 11.1 16.8 11.1 19.0
Orissa 14.6 14.4 16.5 17.8 10.8 13.3 10.8 17.8
Chhatisgarh 17.1 17.2 15.5 15.3 12.3 13.4 11.7 19.0
Madhya Pradesh 17.9 18.0 17.9 13.3 12.9 14.5 11.3 18.1
Daman & Diu 13.0 13.2 12.3 9.8 11.0 13.5 10.8 8.7
Dadra & Nagar
Haveli 18.2 18.3 16.1 19.3 11.4 18.6 13.8 13.3
Andhra Pradesh 13.3 13.2 14.9 12.3 12.4 16.2 11.3 13.8
Karnataka 13.6 13.3 16.1 11.1 11.9 15.3 12.0 13.8
Kerala 11.9 10.8 15.0 11.2 10.0 12.7 9.7 15.9
Tamil Nadu 11.6 11.5 12.9 11.2 10.4 12.0 10.8 11.1
Andaman & Nicobar
Islands 12.6 12.7 11.3 12.7 12.4 5.9 13.0 15.1
Notes: 1. Population figures for
Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district of Manipur.
2. The column All religious communities includes 'Religion not stated'
The above data of cohorts in the 0-6 year age group reveal the following alarming facts
i) Although presently Muslims constitute only 13.4 percent of India's population, their percentage in 0-6 year children was as high as 21 percent in 2001 - i.e., 10 years ago. It gives a head start advantage of 7.6 percent to Muslims in the matter of reproduction; say after the year 2011 and beyond, when these cohorts attain the age of 17 years or more.
ii) It is well known that on an average the acceptance of family planning among
Muslims is at least 25 percent lower than the Hindus. That means from 2011
onwards for the next 30-40 years the population growth rate of Muslims will
be much faster than what has been witnessed during the last 2-3 decades.
Out of 35 States and
and Daman & Diu the percentage of Hindu cohorts in 0-6 yrs. age group is marginally higher than that of Muslims.
The biggest quantum jump in Muslim growth percentage
will be in Haryana where the Muslim 0-6 yrs age cohorts are higher by 60
percent than the Hindus! Next to follow suit will be
The story of the future climactic demographic changes
likely to overwhelm the secular identity of
in the basic determinants of such long term trends. As a general rule, it requires two generations of ‘Baby Boomers' (i.e., a span of 50 years) to counter and reverse the skewed affect of adverse demographics facing a country, or a civilization. The Christians of Lebanon and the Balkans discovered it too late. Now the Christian Europe is facing demographic death!
foregoing analysis reveals that very much like the Christians of
Mishkat-ul-Masabah (Book xiii) Prophet Muhammad had exhorted his followers to “marry
women who will love their husbands and be very prolific, for I wish you to be
more numerous than any other people”. [Source: Dictionary of Islam]. In
furtherance of this agenda the Muslim leadership had apparently decided as
early as 1970s to conquer the world by increasing their population. In her well
researched book, The Force of Reason, late Oriana Fallaci, has
highlighted the fact that during her interview with the Palestinian leader,
George Habash, in 1970s the latter had openly said that the Palestinian problem
was more than a clash with
The same strategy was reiterated once again in the year 1974 when the Algerian President
President Boumedienne, during his address to the U.N. General Assembly in his notoriously famous words thus:
“One day millions of men will leave the southern hemisphere of this planet to
burst upon the northern one. But not as friends. Because they will burst in
to conquer and they will conquer by populating it with their children.
Victory will come to us from the wombs of our women”.
Unfortunately the world slept and took no notice of the warnings given by the Islamists. Leave aside the secularitis-benumbed Indian leadership; even Europe took no notice of the boldly stated intentions of Muslim leaders to stage a global demographic coup through the wombs of their women.
The foregoing quotes clearly show that all
along the Islamists have been working on a strategic agenda to overrun the
world by multiplying their numbers. The demographically challenged Christian
Europe and Hindu civilisation of
P. S. The intention of this research paper is not to ruffle the sensitive feathers of our
friends, the self-styled secular intellectuals and middle class chatterati, but to
present the truth based on a clinical analysis of Census 2001 and contemporary
writings on the subject of demographic changes across the globe. Any flaws, if
pointed out, will be earnestly responded to.
Copyright @ Ram Kumar Ohri