Dr. Richard Benkin
Originally published in the Daily Asian Age of Dhaka
https://dailyasianage.com/news/297826/lessons-from-the-2022-us-elections-part-i
On Tuesday, 8 November 2022, Americans voted in national elections. More than 47 million voted before Election Day-the largest number of early voters ever-and many millions more cast ballots on Election Day. It was supposed to be a Republican blowout with Democrats losing control of the House of Representatives and maybe the Senate, too. But it was nothing like that. In the end, Democrats retained control of the Senate, and it took more than a week of vote counting after the election for Republicans to eke out the 218 seats necessary for a House majority after late vote counting decided enough races in their favor.
These were midterm elections, which occur every four years when the President is not being elected: for instance, 2022, 2018, and 2014 between the Presidential elections of 2012, 2016, 2020, and the next Presidential contest in 2024. House members serve two year terms and Senators serve for six years. All 435 House members and about a third of the 100 Senators stand for election every two years, and the President's party historically takes a beating in these midterms, especially during the President's first term. In 1994, for example, Democrat Bill Clinton's party lost 52 House seats and eight Senate seats in his first term as President. Republican President George W. Bush's first midterm in 2002 was skewed because of America's surge in national unity behind him after 9/11; but four years later, his party, the GOP, lost 30 House and six Senate seats. Barack Obama is a Democrat, whose party lost a record 63 and 13 seats, respectively in his first term. Four years ago in 2018 when Donald Trump was President, the pattern held for the House where Republicans lost 40 seats, but not for the Senate where they actually gained two. All objective indicators pointed to another midterm disaster for the President's party. Besides the historical pattern, high inflation and gas prices, issues with the border, and consistent measures showing President Joe Biden to be deeply unpopular had virtually everyone predicting a massive Republican win; but it didn't happen. What did happen reveals a lot about Americans and what the future likely holds.
Where things stand today
More than three weeks after the election, two House races remain to be called, but the Republicans are leading in both, and the Democrat has conceded defeat in one of them. That will leave Republicans in control of the House with 222 members to the Democrats' 213; the same, relatively small majority that Democrats held in the last Congress. In the Senate, all but one race has been decided, with Democrats holding 50 seats to the Republicans' 49. The one remaining race will be decided in to a run-off election between the top two vote getters on 6 December, and if the Democratic incumbent wins, his party will have a net gain of one Senate seat. Even if they lose, however, they will maintain control of the Senate because the Vice President (currently a Democrat) can break all tie votes.
While the Republican tsunami did not occur, GOP control of the House means that the US will have divided government from January 2023 through January 2025.
Until then, there are about 30 days on the legislative schedule in which Democrats still maintain total control in what is known as a lame duck session, which has the same power to pass new legislation. Democrats are hoping to push through a number of their legislative agenda items before the Congress adjourns in January, but that is not likely. First of all, if they have not been able to pass them in two years of complete control, it is unlikely that they will get them passed in these final days of their reign. Even beyond that, Congress has a number of important priorities in the lame duck session that make those optional issues even less likely to pass.
The most immediate of these is for Congress to pass the legislation necessary to continue funding the operations of the US government. The current authorization expires 16 December, and if a new bill is not passed, many government operations will stop and their employees laid off until the funding is authorized. Equally important is passing the National Defense Authorization Act, which sets defense policy, before the end of 2022. And so I'm clear, no matter what, the US military will continue to operate, as will other essential functions even if Congress does not make the deadline. Still, failure to pass either has a serious impact on pretty much everything else, and there have been several periodic shut downs when Congress could not agree on these measures by the deadline. There is a lot of negotiation and give and take among legislators before we get to the final form of the bill. Next, the old Congress will have to settle a potential rail strike, authorize more aid for Ukraine, and pass the "Defense of Marriage Act" that provides federal protection for same sex and other marriages. Although it's possible that they might get to other legislation, such as the President's request for more funds for COVID relief, it's not very likely.
Divided Government Starts January 23, 2023
Unlike a parliamentary system in which the majority party or coalition forms a government and is awarded the position of Prime Minister; that which the US Constitution created emphasizes a separation of powers among three co-equal branches of government to keep any one party or person from aggregating too much power: the Executive Branch (President and administrative agencies under his control); the Legislative Branch (Senate and House of Representatives); and the Judicial Branch (Supreme Court and court system). These independent branches provide "checks and balances" on each other. Unified government, which is what Biden had for his first two years, was pretty common between 1900 and the end of World War II, occurring 20 out of 23 times. Since then, the American people have opted for divided government 23 out of 39 times. Even though the Supreme Court will strike down laws that contravene our Constitution, unified government allows one party to pass its pet projects within that framework. For instance, Biden passed a government bailout of student loan debt, as well as other large spending bills without a single Republican vote. Republicans opposed the bills but could not prevent their passage. With unified government during his first two years in office, Trump passed large tax reduction bills without any Democratic votes. Democrats opposed them but could not prevent their passage either.
With the Republican takeover of the House in January, Biden knows he cannot pass his party's pet projects without Republican support. In order for a bill to become law, it requires passage by the House and Senate, and the President has to sign it. As parties, Democrats and Republicans have very different ideas about what the government needs to do about things like immigration reform, election law reform, law and order, government spending, and what to do about the power of Big Tech, to name some issues. That's why a lot of people are predicting that little legislation will be passed over the next two years, except for essential bills like military authorization, and perhaps those few bills that come out of specific events and are demanded by the public. But even they will involve a great deal of negotiation in which each party will try to include its own legislative priorities while preventing the other from including its pet projects.
Of equal or greater significance is the fact that several House committees have the power to hold investigations and issue subpoenas. For the last two years, Republicans have identified several matters that they believe need to be investigated but did not have the power to override the Democratic refusal. Congressman Steve Scalise, who will become the majority leader in the next Congress, identified three matters that the Congress will investigate. First is the Afghanistan withdrawal. Most Americans remain outraged by our Afghanistan withdrawal and want to know why we did it when we did, why the recommendations of people on the ground were ignored, its chaotic nature, and the August 2021 suicide bombing of Kabul airport that killed 170 Afghan civilians and 13 members of the United States military. Another is the COVID pandemic and its origin.
Many Americans believe that it started in a Chinese laboratory and either was intentionally spread or the product of biological warfare research. Next on their agenda is the President's son, Hunter Biden. That scandal involves numerous allegations against the President's son, including tax evasion and the inappropriate use of his father's office; as well as an allegation that the media and Big Tech colluded to suppress the story until after the 2020 election in order to secure the defeat of then President Donald Trump. They also raise questions about wrongdoing by the President. These public investigations would keep the American people focused for months on matters that could embarrass Joe Biden and hurt his chances for re-election. Republicans also expect to investigate the lack of control on our Southern border and alleged inappropriate targeting of people by the Department of Justice for political purposes. Democrats have denied any wrongdoing and blocked these investigations. As a result of the 2022 midterm elections, they will not be able to stop them come January.
Dr. Richard Benkin is an American scholar and a geopolitical analyst and offers his insights to help give Bangladeshis perspective on American political events.